Oral Presentation Australian Society for Fish Biology Conference 2024

Forecasting a summer of extremes: Building stakeholder response capacity to marine heatwaves (111433)

Alistair Hobday 1 , Claire Spillman 2 , Jamie Allnutt 3 , Melinda Coleman 4 5 6 , Frederic Bailleul 7 , Laura Blamey 8 , Stephanie Brodie 8 , Arani Chandrapavan 9 , Jason Hartog 1 , David Maynard 3 , Craig Mundy 10 , Eva Plaganyi 8 , Frances Seaborn 11 , Grant Smith 2 , Jemina Stuart-Smith 10
  1. CSIRO Environment, Hobart, TAS, Australia
  2. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne
  3. Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC), Canberra, ACT, Australia
  4. Department of Primary Industries, National Marine Science Centre, Coffs Harbour, NSW, Australia
  5. National Marine Science Centre, School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, NSW, Australia
  6. School of Biological Sciences & UWA Oceans Institute, Crawley, WA, Australia
  7. SARDI, Adelaide, SA, Australia
  8. CSIRO Environment, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
  9. Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Perth, WA, Australia
  10. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
  11. Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Hobart, TAS, Australia

Forecasts of an El Niño in 2023/24 raised concern amongst Australian marine stakeholders regarding the potential impacts on marine industries and systems. National level seafood-focused climate briefings were requested by the fisheries sector for the first time, driven by various state and regional level meetings and information requests. To respond to stakeholder needs, five virtual national marine climate briefings were undertaken through the 2023/24 summer, underpinned by new sub-seasonal to seasonal marine heatwave forecast capabilities. These briefings were developed in collaboration with multiple science organisations and were targeted to industry and management authorities across the Australian seafood sector. Targeted information products, additional regional and sector-specific briefings, and state response plans were developed as a result. Collectively, these briefings were a catalyst for positive and rapid action in policy, management, industry, and research arenas. This experience showed that the combination of seasonal forecasting capability, inter-agency co-ordination, strong stakeholder engagement and effective science communication, plays a critical role in improving the understanding, planning and responses to extreme events.

  1. Hobday, A.J., C.M. Spillman, J. Allnutt, M.A. Coleman, F. Bailleul, L.K. Blamey, S. Brodie, A. Chandrapavan, J.R. Hartog, D. Maynard, C. Mundy, É.E. Plagányi, F. Seaborn, G.A. Smith, and J. Stuart-Smith. 2024. Forecasting a summer of extremes: Building stakeholder response capacity to marine heatwaves. Oceanography 37(3), https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2024.508.