Oral Presentation Australian Society for Fish Biology Conference 2024

Application of marine heatwave forecast information is dependent on industry agility (111251)

Jason Hartog 1 , Alistair Hobday 1 , Claire Spillman 2 , Grant Smith 2
  1. CSIRO Environment, Hobart, TAS, Australia
  2. Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne

Forecasts of marine environmental and ecosystem conditions are now possible at a range of time scales, from nowcasts to forecasts over seasonal and longer time frames. We will provide examples of new marine heatwave seasonal forecasts for Australia and discuss the response options at different leadtimes (e.g. 4 months, 2 months, 1 month) ahead of an event. To benefit from a forecast, a marine business will need to be agile to respond to changing information and response options. The management agility of different marine businesses in fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism can influence their ability to use seasonal forecast information effectively, and potentially modify the usual negative relationship between resilience and the frequency of the stress event, thus reducing the impact of extreme events. Engagement between forecast developers and marine users can also improve responses, while at the same time, improving the agility of businesses can enhance overall resilience to extreme events and lower their risk.

  1. Hartog, J. R., C. M. Spillman, G. Smith and A. J. Hobday (2023). Forecasts of marine heatwaves for marine industries: reducing risk, building resilience and enhancing management responses. Deep Sea Research II: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr1012.2023.105276.